Many years ago as an undergraduate, I studied politics.
It was the time of the labour split, and the formation of a new party called the SDP– later to merge with the Liberal party. The SDP won a few by-elections, and I remember writing essays on how this signalled a real change in British politics- a move to a three party race, and possibly the inevitable move towards proportional representation in our voting system.
Well perhaps I was premature. But the debates then are being aired again…
There was an interesting article in the Guardian discussing the Israeli system of government- with successive hung parliaments making decisive policy making next to impossible, and political alliances and wheeler-dealing the norm.
But what do I know? It would certainly make life interesting!
So, given my obvious lack of insight and expertise I thought it would be fun to make a few predictions…
- We are going to have a minority Conservative government held together by a vague alliance with the Lib Dems. The alliance will be bought by the promise of a referendum on proportional representation.
- This will create turmoil in the Tory party, as PR is unlikely to serve them well (in terms of seats.)
- Actual reform of the voting system will not happen for a long time, and when it does, it will be a fudge that goes only some of the way, but perhaps only for the House of Lords.
- The current hung parliament will achieve very little, and there will be another election in 2 years- whenever the Conservatives think that they have a chance of winning an absolute majority.
- Brown will resign.
So there you go- you heard it first here.
And it was probably all wrong.