About a year ago, in response to the looming general election result, I made some political predictions on this blog– always a risky thing to do. Here is what I said, as I seem to have been proved strangely sage-like…
- We are going to have a minority Conservative government held together by a vague alliance with the Lib Dems. The alliance will be bought by the promise of a referendum on proportional representation.
- This will create turmoil in the Tory party, as PR is unlikely to serve them well (in terms of seats.)
- Actual reform of the voting system will not happen for a long time, and when it does, it will be a fudge that goes only some of the way, but perhaps only for the House of Lords.
- The current hung parliament will achieve very little, and there will be another election in 2 years- whenever the Conservatives think that they have a chance of winning an absolute majority.
- Brown will resign.
Frankly, some of these predictions were rather obvious. But others are still working themselves out. I still reckon that we are heading for another election next year- the alliance with the Lib Dems is being weakened by two things- firstly, the breakdown of the ‘Nick effect’- his star is waning visibly- he got in bed with the Devil, and the Devil appears to be dancing all over him. Secondly, the voices of criticism in the party are starting to be heard, led perhaps most visible by the always eloquent, if sometimes gaff prone, Vince Cable (the next Lib Dem leader?)
“Some of us never had many illusions about the Conservatives, but they have emerged as ruthless, calculating and thoroughly tribal.
“But that doesn’t mean to say we can’t work with them. I think they have always been that way, but you have to be businesslike and professional and you have to work with people who aren’t your natural bedfellows and that is being grown-up in politics. We are going to continue to do that.”
For a while at least.
Strange indeed that Cable, a serving minister, can talk like this about his colleagues in government. But then these are strange times. Even Cable would not stray so far from his party’s agreed line- there is now a v
isible distance between Clegg and Cameron.
Perhaps in no small part due to the humiliation over the referendum result of the Alternative Vote system- itself a pale compromise of what the Lib Dems were seeking to achieve- Proportional Representation.
In a conversation last week (and this time you will just have to take my word for it) I predicted this result- a resounding no. I reckoned that this was partly a punishment vote for Clegg, who has given us a Tory slash and burn government, and also because of the innate conservatism of the British people in making any changes to our unwritten constitution.
The other cataclysm of the recent elections is the collapse of the Labour party up here, and the rise of the Scottish National Party. I find it harder to make any predictions about this change- it is much closer to my sensitive bits somehow. I will have to have a bit of a think about this…