Tag Archives: politics

Strange political times…

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About a year ago, in response to the looming general election result, I made some political predictions on this blog– always a risky thing to do. Here is what I said, as I seem to have been proved strangely sage-like…

  • We are going to have a minority Conservative government held together by a vague alliance with the Lib Dems. The alliance will be bought by the promise of a referendum on proportional representation.
  • This will create turmoil in the Tory party, as PR is unlikely to serve them well (in terms of seats.)
  • Actual reform of the voting system will not happen for a long time, and when it does, it will be a fudge that goes only some of the way, but perhaps only for the House of Lords.
  • The current hung parliament will achieve very little, and there will be another election in 2 years- whenever the Conservatives think that they have a chance of winning an absolute majority.
  • Brown will resign.
Frankly, some of these predictions were rather obvious. But others are still working themselves out. I still reckon that we are heading for another election next year- the alliance with the Lib Dems is being weakened by two things- firstly, the breakdown of the ‘Nick effect’- his star is waning visibly- he got in bed with the Devil, and the Devil appears to be dancing all over him. Secondly, the voices of criticism in the party are starting to be heard, led perhaps most visible by the always eloquent, if sometimes gaff prone, Vince Cable (the next Lib Dem leader?)
This morning, on radio 4, Vince Cable said something like this–

 “Some of us never had many illusions about the Conservatives, but they have emerged as ruthless, calculating and thoroughly tribal.

“But that doesn’t mean to say we can’t work with them. I think they have always been that way, but you have to be businesslike and professional and you have to work with people who aren’t your natural bedfellows and that is being grown-up in politics. We are going to continue to do that.”

For a while at least.
Strange indeed that Cable, a serving minister, can talk like this about his colleagues in government. But then these are strange times. Even Cable would not stray so far from his party’s agreed line- there is now a visible distance between Clegg and Cameron.
Perhaps in no small part due to the humiliation over the referendum result of the Alternative Vote system- itself a pale compromise of what the Lib Dems were seeking to achieve- Proportional Representation.
In a conversation last week (and this time you will just have to take my word for it) I predicted this result- a resounding no. I reckoned that this was partly a punishment vote for Clegg, who has given us a Tory slash and burn government, and also because of the innate conservatism of the British people in making any changes to our unwritten constitution.
The other cataclysm of the recent elections is the collapse of the Labour party up here, and the rise of the Scottish National Party. I find it harder to make any predictions about this change- it is much closer to my sensitive bits somehow. I will have to have a bit of a think about this…

The BIG society. Agggghhh!

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It will all come round again if you wait a while. There is nothing new under the sun.

David Cameron (Michaela says she always finds herself shuddering when his name is mentioned) has this idea- and it goes something like this-

Lets stop all these public services, and suggest that people just get on with it for themselves.

The middle classes will come through.

An army of people dressed in sensible shoes will organise committees to clear slums, dig sewers, set up homes for the incurables and feed Tiny Tim till his little tum is fit to bust.

Cameron seems to have taken advice from Samuel Smiles.

And meanwhile, all around us, community groups who might give structure and organisation to all this community activity are all going to the wall as they lose their funding.

It is not as though I could ever be accused of being against community activity, or believe that the Big State can ever be the answer to all the issues that society throws up. But when a ‘big idea’ is used as a mask to do the same old confidence trick- cuts to services, and power and wealth to the already powerful and wealthy- then I start to feel the need to rant.

Now, rant over- have a laugh at this little clip…

I make some political predictions…

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Many years ago as an undergraduate, I studied politics.

It was the time of the labour split, and the formation of a new party called the SDP– later to merge with the Liberal party. The SDP won a few by-elections, and I remember writing essays on how this signalled a real change in British politics- a move to a three party race, and possibly the inevitable move towards proportional representation in our voting system.

Well perhaps I was premature. But the debates then are being aired again…

There was an interesting article in the Guardian discussing the Israeli system of government- with successive hung parliaments making decisive policy making next to impossible, and political alliances and wheeler-dealing the norm.

But what do I know? It would certainly make life interesting!

So, given my obvious lack of insight and expertise I thought it would be fun to make a few predictions…

  • We are going to have a minority Conservative government held together by a vague alliance with the Lib Dems. The alliance will be bought by the promise of a referendum on proportional representation.
  • This will create turmoil in the Tory party, as PR is unlikely to serve them well (in terms of seats.)
  • Actual reform of the voting system will not happen for a long time, and when it does, it will be a fudge that goes only some of the way, but perhaps only for the House of Lords.
  • The current hung parliament will achieve very little, and there will be another election in 2 years- whenever the Conservatives think that they have a chance of winning an absolute majority.
  • Brown will resign.

So there you go- you heard it first here.

And it was probably all wrong.

On voting Labour…

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I have always voted Labour.

For a while, my passion for a kind of politics that fought for liberty and equality was indistinguishable from my faith. Both drove me in the same direction.

I believed in a God who was more interested in the gutters of society than the doings of the well to do and famous. I became convinced that Jesus was a revolutionary, sent to call us to a way of life that promoted the last to be first and the first to be last. My heros were people who sought to live out this radical path- even where I failed.

And you know what- I still believe those things.

In the 80’s and 90’s the only party that seemed to embrace some of these views was the Labour party. It was a party in turmoil- arguing over it’s very soul. But still deep in it’s DNA was this passion for social justice and compassion for the weak and poor.

The years of power and compromise have soured so much of this image. The dispicable war in Iraq, the aparent surrender to the ‘free market’, the loss of identity in a changing world. The accommodation with the worst elements of the press on immigration.

Like many of us, I have been struggling to decide how to vote in this coming election. Could I vote for the Liberal Democrats, who are saying some things that I like? Or was there anything about the leadership of Brown that I could still believe in and celebrate?

I am not swayed by the leadership debates. They are televisual circuses that might yet lead us down a kind of politics that has dominated the USA. Beware voting for a well polished public image. We vote for policies and principles, not personalities.

I heard a story about Atlee, the labour leader who did so much to introduce the Welfare State and National Health Service. Someone quipped that an empty taxi arrived at Westminster, and he got out. But his legacy is with us still.

But still, my trust in Brown had reached a low ebb. He seemed so shambolic, so defeated.

I know a lot of men like Brown up here in Scotland. Sober, dignified, private men, who suffer no fools nor enjoy the social life. Taciturn and truculent. Men who believe still in public service.

I watched this (Thanks Jonny) and saw for the first time in this election something that really stirred me.

And made my voting choice a lot easier.